State of the USMNT

This post has been a long time coming. I have often stated my beliefs and opinions about the US Men's National Team, but this will be the first written account of it.

I have been brushing off writing about the Gold Cup for a few reasons, not least of which is that I don't particularly enjoy writing match recaps. Games are played; you either watch them, or you don't. I'd rather exchange ideas about what happened than give a minute by minute update. Anyone who wants that information can check ESPN's Gamecast. The bigger reason, however, is that the USMNT - as a whole - had not done anything noteworthy.

In one of my previous posts (Transfer Monday) I stated that the Nats tcob against Belize. Last week (Transfer Monday: Vol. II) I mentioned that I had a gripe, which I would get to. Well, here it is:

If the USMNT wants to be considered a challenger, a top caliber program, and basically live up to the expectations of the, albeit fickle, American media and public, then beating Belize, Cuba, El Salvador, and even Costa Rica should be a given, not a struggle.

It's just that simple.

Are we there yet? No.
Can we get there? Yes.
Will we get there? I think so, but it will take time and player development.

This next part may seem like a tangent, but bear with me, it's all related. Do me a favor and check out the latest FIFA rankings. Most people in the soccer world put little stock in the actual rankings of these countries, and I am no exception. It is a flawed system, but the bigger picture is what matters here. I like to think of the rankings in terms of Fantasy Football (again, bear with me). If you do not play/understand FF, feel free to skip down to the next paragraph. When ranking players in FF, experts generally break them into categories. Quarterbacks, for example, may be categorized as "elite" or "solid starter" down to "bye week play" or "if you're desperate". "Elite" is self explanatory, while "if you're desperate" basically means that if you have nobody to put into your team for a given week, at the very least we know that Mark Sanchez is starting, and he's playing the Bills. So, instead of having a 1-207 list of countries, I have a few different categories, and the order in each doesn't really matter.

Note: These rankings are based on history and opinion. If you've got a problem with them, go ahead and voice it.

Elite

The cream of the crop. These countries have proven throughout the years that they are the best of the best by winning trophies. In order of World Cup trophies:

Brazil, Italy, Germany, Argentina, Spain

While these teams may have their off years, anytime they participate in major tournaments, they are among the favorites. Spain are the latest addition to this group. They are included because of their recent dominance and the fact that they continue to produce talented players. These are the only Elite teams, in my opinion.

Elite Pretenders

These teams could make a case for being in the upper echelon, but when it comes down to it, Joe Flacco is not Peyton Manning. That's not to say these teams cannot make the jump, but they have to earn it. In no particular order:

France, England, Netherlands, Portugal, Uruguay

The Dutch continually struggle to win the big ones, and Portugal are just happy to be here. The other three have won at least one World Cup. Uruguay have had a long lull in production since 1950, while England are over-hyped and underwhelming.  France could make the strongest argument to be included with the big boys, having won the 1998 World Cup, and 1984 and 2000 EUROs, but those who know me know why they aren't. This blog is called Biased Soccer for a reason.

The Muddled Middle I

This category is where it gets messy. In the FIFA rankings, these countries usually fall anywhere between 3 and 50. The order is taken from where they currently stand in the FIFA rankings.

Colombia, Croatia, Belgium, Greece, Cote d'Ivoire, Switzerland, Russia, Mexico, Chile, USA, Ghana, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ukraine, Sweden, Nigeria, Japan, Australia, Serbia, South Korea, Paraguay, Turkey

The USMNT falls into this category, along with many other countries. I'll get to what this means after my rankings. 

The Muddled Middle II

The difference between I and II is that the teams above have demonstrated more consistency over the years. They regularly qualify for the World Cup, and the European representatives qualify for the EUROs. The non-UEFA contingent are teams that have won their regional tournaments, or are always thereabouts in the end. The following are other middle-of-the-road teams, but have less of a track record. Same way of determining order as above:

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Peru, Norway, Hungary, Romania, Algeria, Costa Rica, Ireland, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Honduras, South Africa

Now, I only selected teams currently in the top 60 according to FIFA. Even then, I omitted a few (as well as included some questionable ones). There could be a "Muddled Middle III", and "The Rest" but I won't go that deep. Here's the point, and where it ties back into the State of the USMNT:

Right now, the USA is not close to being an "Elite" footballing nation. But we can get there.

I believe most hard-core fans are realistic about this, but the media leads the casual supporter to believe that we deserve to be in the final reckoning more often than not.

Explaining my rankings

Think of it this way: The head-to-head results between teams in the same category are usually pretty evenly split.

Example: In the last 10 meetings between Brazil and Argentina, Brazil have won 5 matches, drawn 2, and lost 3.

Example 2: There have only been four meetings between the USA and Denmark, with each nation holding a 1-2-1 record.

However, the difference between the "Elite"/"Elite Pretenders" and the "Muddled Middle" is significant. Brazil are 8-1-1 against the States (after 90 minutes) in the last 10 matches. Brazil are 8-0-1 against Costa Rica, all time. In four of the last five matches, Brazil have scored at least four goals against the Central Americans, who are arguably the third best team in CONCACAF. For comparison, the Nats are 5-2-3 against Costa Rica since 2002. On top of this, the USMNT have won by more than one goal only once in that time.

How to become "Elite"

In my mind, there are three major steps to take to reach the likes of Brazil and Spain:

1) Establish complete regional dominance

While they have not often occurred, blowout wins against clearly inferior opponents must become a staple for the Nats. They have proven they are capable of over-matching opponents thus far during the Gold Cup with a second choice squad, no less. Excuses for ugly 2-1 wins against Antigua and Barbuda shouldn't be tolerated. While "a win is a win" in WCQ, matches like these do nothing to boost the reputation of our team.

2) Consistently compete against the world's best

Last month's win against Germany was a great stepping stone, more so than the win against Italy in 2012. The match in Italy last year was a display of negative tactics and counter attacking, which is to be expected when weaker teams face strong oppo. Not very fun to watch. The argument can be made that Italy was at full strength, and the Bavarians sent their 'B' team, but just as the current US squad is tearing apart weaker foes in the Gold Cup, so could it be said that the Germans are capable of doing the same. While these two victories have been highlights of the Klinsmann era, I will point out that they are accompanied by draws with Canada and Russia, and losses to Ecuador, France, and Belgium (in an embarrassing manner).

This is a gradual process, it will not occur over night, but the fact that the USA have shown signs of improvement over the last few years is encouraging. Progress can still be made.

3) Win the World Cup

The "Elite" nations I mentioned all have this in common. A few countries on the outside looking in have won on the world's biggest stage. Without this on the USMNT resume, they cannot be considered "Elite".

For the record, I think it is possible for this to happen. I may even go as far as to (optimistically) say that it could happen in my lifetime. In the next 60 years, 15 World Cups will be held. With American resources and infrastructure, it is absolutely within reason to assume a World Cup championship is achievable. 

Think about Spain, the baby of the "Elite". Their evolution into the powerhouse they are today began about 20 years ago, when they began producing players like Xavi, Iniesta, Casillas, etc. US Soccer and MLS have been working hard to improve the academy program in the States. They are producing and cultivating better players, and while the process is not yet where it needs to be, it is progressing. The tricky thing to keep in mind that our rivals have a head start on us, and are also continually progressing. Reaching the levels to which we aspire will likely take decades. Hopefully I'll still be around to see it.

Feel free to leave comments and feedback, suggest future topics to cover, whatever. Also follow me on Twitter @biasedsoccer

Transfer Monday: Vol. II

Let me start by saying that I do realize that last week's "Transfer Monday" was posted on a Wednesday. I'll be honest, I completely lost track of what day it was. However, that mental lapse has inspired me to continue calling this series "Transfer Monday" no matter which day it goes up.

Again, Gold Cup would be a good topic to write about, but I'll be honest, I missed most of the USAvCRC game. And I have a gripe about that which I will post in the near future. Moving on!

There haven't been many big names moving around over the course of the week, but I'll take a look at those who have, and some potential transfers on the horizon.

Edinson Cavani (Striker) - Napoli to PSG

Cavani is a beast. He has lit up the scoring charts in Italy for the past few seasons with Napoli, and helped them to a second place finish last year. The Parisians have been buying up big names since the Qataris became majority shareholders in 2011. With a team of stars (and egos that come with them *cough*Ibra*cough*) I think it's only a matter of time before there is some lockerroom discontent. If Ibrahimovic isn't moved after this season, or if Monaco (or anyone else, for that matter) usurps PSG's short-lived championship, look for heads to roll in Le City of Lights.

Asier Illarramendi (Midfielder) - Real Sociedad to Real Madrid

I may have seen a total of two Real Sociedad games over the last 3+ years. But, I had heard of Illarramendi as a kid with a bright future. He has been touted as the next Xabi Alonso, which is exactly what Real Madrid need. Alsonso isn't getting any younger, and his injury before the Confeds may worry Los Galacticos. We'll all learn a little bit more about Illarramendi this season with the spotlight on him.

Emanuele Giaccherini (Winger) - Juventus to Sunderland

This one is a bit of a head-scratcher. Giaccherini has established himself as a regular for the Italian national team over the last two years. They way top Italian clubs swap players, it is surprising to see one of their own jump ship for the Prem. Even more surprising is that Giaccherini landed in Sunderland, of all places. It seems as though the Black Cats are tired of finishing at the bottom half of the table, and they're making their push towards European qualification.

Thiago Alcantara (Midfielder) - Barcelona to Bayern Munich

"Greed, for lack of a better word, is good." Gordon Gekko said it, Pep Guardiola seemingly lives by it. Forget, for a moment, the fact that Bayern won the Champions League last season, and that they demolished Barcelona to get there. When Pep was at Barcelona, his roster was stacked. Yet, he continued to bring in players that proved to be somewhat surplus to requirements. Boasting Xavi, Iniesta, and even Busquets in the center of the field, Pep brought in Javier Mascherano and Cesc Fabregas. Both players were previously stars for their respective clubs, but have since struggled to break in regularly for Barca. Mascherano moved to center-back, while Fabregas has come off the bench more than he would have liked.

Queue Thiago, who spurned a likely starting role at Manchester United for Bayern (much to Wugene's dismay), which already features the likes of Schweinsteiger, Muller, and now Mario Gotze. Granted, the German giants will probably play close to sixty games this season, and depth is definitely needed, but someone will be left out in the cold, featuring mainly in cup matches and occasionally in the league or Champions League. Bayern may not need much help anywhere on the field, but the midfield was probably the least of their concern. Pep, quit being so greedy!

Keep an eye out for...

Luis Suarez: Hopefully he goes to Madrid instead of Arsenal. I would be extremely annoyed for him to criticize the British media only to stay in England.

Wayne Rooney: David Moyes has said he is staying in Manchester, but Chelsea, Arsenal, and PSG have all been interested this summer.

Gonzalo Higuain: Federico's younger, and more famous brother (well, outside of MLS circles perhaps) is on his way out of Madrid. Arsenal were the favorites, but he may decide to go to Italy with Napoli looking for a Cavani replacement. Liverpool have also surfaced as a possibility with a potential swap for Suarez.

Thiago Silva: The Brazil captain seems to be leaving Paris for Barcelona. Silva's dominance at the heart of defense would be greatly appreciated in Catalonia.

Christian Benteke: One of two big reasons Villa has lived to fight another year in the Prem (the other being Brad Guzan... USA! USA!), the Belgian has been fiercely linked with Tottenham.

Feel free to leave comments and feedback, suggest future topics to cover, whatever. Also follow me on Twitter @biasedsoccer

Transfer Monday

I feel like I should be talking about the Gold Cup, and that's probably what some people might expect. But, I'm not going to do that for a few reasons. One: I've already put in my two cents about the USMNT roster. Two: The US tcob (took care of business) against Belize, as they should have. Three: I don't feel like it, and this is my blog. Fair enough?

Instead, I've decided to take a look at the recent big-name transfers. Since this is the "silly season" and players are moving left and right every day, I'll do my best to keep up with a weekly post. Let's take a look at some of the more high-profile swaps so far.

Simon Mignolet (GK) - Sunderland to Liverpool

Mignolet was one of a couple of BPL 'keepers rumored to move this summer. He is a good player, and looks to be the long-term replacement for Pepe Reina. The interesting bit, though, is that Reina is still on the Reds' roster. He has been linked with a move back to Barcelona (where he spent time at the famous La Masia), who still have Victor Valdes for one final year. So, until something is resolved with Reina there exist two possible 'keeper controversies to start the 2013-14 season.

Jesus Navas (Winger) - Sevilla to Manchester City

Navas is a very good player. During the Confederations Cup, he provided a spark for Spain coming off the bench against both Italy and Brazil. Unfortunately for him, Spain is stacked with attack-minded midfielders and wingers. In my opinion, he could replace Pedro as a starter, but the Barcelona chemistry has been difficult to overlook. Tangent over.

Man City have acquired another speedy winger. Scott Sinclair did not work out last season, and Navas will be given his shot. He has a well-documented history of homesickness and anxiety (I believe he often held out of the Spain squad during away matches earlier in his career), but having participated in the 2010 World Cup, 2012 Euros, and 2013 Confeds, it seems Navas has at least made an effort to put his worries behind him. Now with a permanent home in England we will see how his conditions affect his play.

Carlos Tevez (Striker) - Manchester City to Juventus

Tevez had a roller coaster of a spell with City. At one point he served as captain, but contract disputes and transfer requests climaxed in abandoning the team to hang out and play golf in Argentina during the 2011-2012 season. Once he returned, he was as reliable as ever for the Citizens. Now with the Italian champions, Tevez should thrive with Andrea Pirlo pulling the strings.

Paulinho (Midfielder) - Corinthians to Tottenham

Spurs signed a quality player. I didn't know much about Paulinho until coming down to Brazil at the end of last year. Since then I've been able to watch him play for the Seleção, as well as Corinthians, and let me tell you the man does it all. He shone in the Confeds and should do so in North London, as well. A box-to-box player, he kind of reminds me of Frank Lampard. Spurs' midfield is looking mighty formidable for next season.

Jozy Altidore (Striker) - AZ Alkmaar to Sunderland

Jozy in the Prem, take 2. I hadn't realized he had gotten so much playing time for Hull City back in the 2009-10 season. He took part in 28 matches, scoring only once. While those numbers are pretty dismal, this time around promises to be different. Jozy was red-hot in the Netherlands, which has finally transferred back to the Nats. This should help his confidence in battling for a starting spot. Sunderland are a better team than Hull was, and he will get some service from Sebastian Larsson and Adam Johnson. Who knows, maybe even John O'Shea will chip in.

Radamel Falcao (Striker) - Atletico Madrid to AS Monaco

Welcome back to Ligue 1 Monaco. What's that? You've got a ton of money now? Sure, you can buy trophies! Watch out though, it will be a bidding war between you and PSG... 

Monaco, once a European heavyweight (okay, maybe more of a middleweight), are well on their way back to prominence. I bet a move to a then-second division team isn't looking so bad now, is it Sean Franklin?

David Villa (Striker) - Barcelona to Atletico Madrid

The biggest surprise here is that Villa chose to stay in Spain, rather than the touted move to Spurs. Atletico Madrid aren't as far away from catching the big boys as one might think. They were in second place for much of last season before finishing comfortably in third. They've done this by building a strong core, and always having dangerous strikers. Before Villa came Falcao, who was preceded by Diego Forlan.

This was probably the best piece of business of the transfer window. Falcao was sold for roughly $75 million. Villa, still a very capable striker who had been forced to play on the left wing during his tenure at Barcelona, was brought in for about $6.5 million. Over three years.

Neymar (Winger/Striker) - Santos to Barcelona

Neymar is about to roll up his sleeves and get a little Messi in Barcelona. Neymar's performance at the Confeds silenced a lot of his critics. The biggest thing to watch for is how his style of play blends with the likes of Messi and Iniesta. Credit to my cousin JP who first pointed out to me that Neymar's game is much more comparable to Cristiano Ronaldo than to Messi. I've come to agree with that idea, and think it will benefit everyone mentioned, with the exception of Ronaldo (and Real Madrid).

Nicholas Anelka (Striker) - Shanghai Shenhua to West Brom

PSG, Arsenal, Real Madrid, PSG again, Liverpool, Man City, Fenerbahce, Bolton, Chelsea, Shanghai, Juventus, West Brom. Ladies and Gentlemen, the definition of 'mercenary'.

Carlos Bocanegra (Defender) - Rangers to Chivas USA

Poor guy. Charlie Blackmouth returns to southern California with the most hapless team in MLS. It will be an uphill battle for the former USMNT captain to regain a roster spot before the upcoming World Cup. I wish him luck.

Pablo Mastroeni (Midfielder) - Colorado Rapids to LA Galaxy

Conversation between Bruce Arena and one of his advisers... Let's just call him TJ.

Landon Donovan? check. Cobi Jones? check. Frankie Hejduk? Check. Greg Berhalter, Eddie Lewis, Tony Sanneh? Check, check, and check. How about Clint Mathis?? Yup. Alright, then let's bring in Pablo Mastroeni next.

Feel free to leave comments and feedback, suggest future topics to cover, whatever. Also follow me on Twitter @biasedsoccer

Confederations Cup Recap

Well, the precursor to the World Cup is now in the books, and it's time to take a look back. Overall, this edition of the Confederations Cup was pretty successful. In terms of quality of play and stadium atmosphere, you can't complain. Protests and activism in cities around Brazil didn't affect the event itself very much. I'll go over some of the highlights, lowlights, and revisit some of my pre-tournament predictions.

Highlights:

Goal of the Tournament

Spectacular goals are often the most remembered of tournaments (Ronaldinho vs. England in 2002, Maxi Rodriguez vs. Mexico in 2006). This is even more true when they are the first goal the competition (Lahm vs. Costa Rica in 2006, Tshabalala vs. Mexico in 2010). That's why Neymar's strike against Japan to open up the Confeds gets the nod.

Save of the Tournament

You would think names like Casillas, Buffon, and Julio Cesar should easily qualify, and they each had some great saves, to their credit. However, no save was more meaningful than David Luiz's goal-line clearance in the final. That tackle kept Brazil in the lead; had Pedro scored the game would have gone much differently.

Best Match

Hands down, the Japan vs. Italy match was the most exciting of the Cup. A back-and-forth brawl where both teams had chances to ice the game, until the Azzurri prevailed.

Feel-Good Moment

Expectations for Tahiti were to be thoroughly embarrassed, and judging by their scorelines, they were. However the integrity and spirit with which they played each match was very admirable. The Brazilian fans adopted the OFC champs as their own, but the best moment for the minnows was when Jonathan Tehau rose above the Nigerian defender on a corner kick and scored their only goal of the tournament.

Lowlights:

Social and political issues were brought to the forefront in Brazil during the Confeds. Protests occurred in most major cities, including on gamedays. While they were mostly peaceful, there were a few of instances of police using rubber bullets and tear gas on the crowd, as well as some troublemakers lighting fires in the streets. 

These events were foreshadowed when President Dilma Rousseff, a popular leader until recently, was booed at the opening ceremony. For his efforts to calm the crowd, diminutive FIFA President Sepp Blatter received the same treatment.

Hindsight is 20/20:

The reason I decided to call this blog "Unbiasedly Biased" is because even though I am very opinionated in the world of soccer, I am also man enough to admit when I am wrong. 

So here is me coming full circle, boasting about my correct calls with my tail between my legs.

For reference, here are the two preview posts:

Group A

Group B

Correct Predictions:

• Selecting Brazil and Spain to meet in the finals.
• Brazil's defense holding strong, allowing a tournament-low three goals.
• Uruguay's midfield being a liability. Forlan dropped back far too often to collect and distribute the ball.
• Mario Balotelli scoring a goal and receiving a card (though it was only a yellow).

Incorrect Predictions:

• Spain holding the trophy at the end (Fair Play trophy doesn't count).
• Japan sneaking into the semi-finals. They could have done it, had Kagawa not missed a point-blank header.
• Italy having a strong defense. They leaked eight goals in five games, and Buffon looked past it.
• Brazil's strikers being a weakness. Fred has a nose for goal, scoring five, and Jo chipped in with a couple of his own.
• Neymar underwhelming. Yeah, I blew it on that one.

Onto the Gold Cup!

Feel free to leave comments and feedback, suggest future topics to cover, whatever. Also follow me on Twitter @biasedsoccer